A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
