Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
